The United Kingdom’s multi-ethnic future: how fast is it arriving?

© 2017, Routledge. This is an Accepted Manuscript of a book chapter published by Routledge in Applied Spatial Modelling and Planning on 4 Oct 2016, available online: https://www.routledge.com/Applied-Spatial-Modelling-and-Planning/Lombard-Stern-Clarke/p/book/9781138925700

The use of a new indirect method to estimate ethnic-group fertility rates for subnational projections for England.

To project the ethnic-group populations of local authorities in England to 2051, estimates of ethnic-specific fertility rates were needed. In the absence of ethnic information on birth records, we developed indirect estimation methods that use a combination of vital statistics, the census (both microdata and aggregate tables), and survey data (Labour Force Survey). We estimated age-specific and total fertility rates successively for five broad ethnic groups encompassed by all data-sets, and for eight ethnic groups encompassed by the 1991 and 2001 Censuses for England. We then used census data to disaggregate the estimates to the 16 ethnic groups required for the subnational projections and the Hadwiger function to estimate single-year-of-age estimates. We estimated the uncertainty around the fertility estimates and used a logistic model to project rates to 2021, after which we assumed rates would remain constant

The impacts of international migration on the UK’s ethnic populations

The United Kingdom faces demographic uncertainty, as negotiations for leaving the European Union (Brexit) proceed. Brexit has implications for international migration into and out of the UK, dependent on future immigration policy and on how attractive the UK will be as a labour market. At the same time, the UK population is experiencing ethnic diversification, consequent on past immigration. To explore the UK’s future ethnic diversity, we run four projection scenarios. Three international migration scenarios, varying by the extent of the break with the EU, are implemented together with a reference projection assuming zero international migration. Ethnic groups are differently affected by these migration scenarios, depending on the contribution of international migration to population growth and the extent of demographic momentum. The White British and Irish lose population under all Brexit scenarios and the Black Caribbean population declines in all but one scenario. The White Other, Indian, Chinese, Other Asian and Other groups will show much lower growth under Soft and Hard Brexit scenarios. The growth of the Mixed, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Black African and Black Other groups will only be affected marginally. Under every scenario, however, the UK’s population is projected to continue to grow, age and diversify

Breathlessness and sexual activity in older adults: The Australian Longitudinal Study of Ageing

© 2018 The Author(s). Sexual activity is important to older adults (65 +). Breathlessness affects about 25% of older adults but impact on sexual activity is unknown. We evaluated the relationships between breathlessness and sexual inactivity and self-reported health among older community-dwelling adults in the Australian Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Associations between self-reported breathlessness (hurrying on level ground or walking up a slight hill) at baseline, self-reported sexual activity, overall health and health compared to people of the same age were explored using logistic regression at baseline and 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders (age, sex, marital status, smoking status and co-morbidities). Of 798 participants (mean age 76.4 years [SD, 5.8] 65 to 103; 53% men, 73% married), 688 (86.2%) had 2-year follow-up data. People with breathlessness had higher prevalence and duration of sexual inactivity (77.7% vs. 65.6%; p < 0.001; 12 [IQR, 5-17] vs. 9.5 [IQR, 5-16] years; p = 0.043). Breathlessness was associated with more sexual inactivity, (adjusted OR 1.75; [95% CI] 1.24-2.45), worse health (adjusted OR 2.02; 1.53-2.67) and worse health compared to peers (adjusted OR 1.72; 1.25-2.38). Baseline breathlessness did not predict more sexual inactivity at 2 years. In conclusion, breathlessness contributes to sexual inactivity and worse perceived health in older adults, which calls for improved assessment and management

Probing the internal micromechanical properties of Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilms by Brillouin imaging

© 2017 The Author(s). Biofilms are organised aggregates of bacteria that adhere to each other or surfaces. The matrix of extracellular polymeric substances that holds the cells together provides the mechanical stability of the biofilm. In this study, we have applied Brillouin microscopy, a technique that is capable of measuring mechanical properties of specimens on a micrometre scale based on the shift in frequency of light incident upon a sample due to thermal fluctuations, to investigate the micromechanical properties of an active, live Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilm. Using this non-contact and label-free technique, we have extracted information about the internal stiffness of biofilms under continuous flow. No correlation with colony size was found when comparing the averages of Brillouin shifts of two-dimensional cross-sections of randomly selected colonies. However, when focusing on single colonies, we observed two distinct spatial patterns: In smaller colonies, stiffness increased towards their interior, indicating a more compact structure of the centre of the colony, whereas, larger (over 45 μm) colonies were found to have less stiff interiors

Is late-life dependency increasing or not? A comparison of the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS)

Background: Little is known about how dependency levels have changed between generational cohorts of older people. We estimated years lived in different care states at age 65 in 1991 and 2011 and new projections of future demand for care. Methods: Two population-based studies of older people in defined geographical areas conducted two decades apart (the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies) provided prevalence estimates of dependency in four states: high (24-hour care); medium (daily care); low (less than daily); independent. Years in each dependency state were calculated by Sullivan’s method. To project future demand, the proportions in each dependency state (by age group and sex) were applied to the 2014 England population projections. Findings: Between 1991 and 2011 there were significant increases in years lived from age 65 with low (men:1·7 years, 95%CI 1·0-2·4; women:2·4 years, 95%CI 1·8-3·1) and high dependency (men:0·9 years, 95%CI 0·2-1·7; women:1·3 years, 95%CI 0·5-2·1). The majority of men’s extra years of life were independent (36%) or with low dependency (36%) whilst for women the majority were spent with low dependency (58%), only 5% being independent. There were substantial reductions in the proportions with medium and high dependency who lived in care homes, although, if these dependency and care home proportions remain constant in the future, further population ageing will require an extra 71,000 care home places by 2025. Interpretation: On average older men now spend 2.4 years and women 3.0 years with substantial care needs (medium or high dependency), and most will live in the community. These findings have considerable implications for older people’s families who provide the majority of unpaid care, but the findings also supply valuable new information for governments and care providers planning the resources and funding required for the care of their future ageing populations

Bayesian Model Selection Applied to the Analysis of Fluorescence Correlation Spectroscopy Data of Fluorescent Proteins in Vitro and in Vivo

Fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (FCS) is a powerful technique to investigate molecular dynamics with single molecule sensitivity. In particular, in the life sciences it has found widespread application using fluorescent proteins as molecularly specific labels. However, FCS data analysis and interpretation using fluorescent proteins remains challenging due to typically low signal-to-noise ratio of FCS data and correlated noise in autocorrelated data sets. As a result, naive fitting procedures that ignore these important issues typically provide similarly good fits for multiple competing models without clear distinction of which model is preferred given the signal-to-noise ratio present in the data. Recently, we introduced a Bayesian model selection procedure to overcome this issue with FCS data analysis. The method accounts for the highly correlated noise that is present in FCS data sets and additionally penalizes model complexity to prevent over interpretation of FCS data. Here, we apply this procedure to evaluate FCS data from fluorescent proteins assayed in vitro and in vivo. Consistent with previous work, we demonstrate that model selection is strongly dependent on the signal-to-noise ratio of the measurement, namely, excitation intensity and measurement time, and is sensitive to saturation artifacts. Under fixed, low intensity excitation conditions, physical transport models can unambiguously be identified. However, at excitation intensities that are considered moderate in many studies, unwanted artifacts are introduced that result in nonphysical models to be preferred. We also determined the appropriate fitting models of a GFP tagged secreted signaling protein, Wnt3, in live zebrafish embryos, which is necessary for the investigation of Wnt3 expression and secretion in development. Bayes model selection therefore provides a robust procedure to determine appropriate transport and photophysical models for fluorescent proteins when appropriate models are provided, to help detect and eliminate experimental artifacts in solution, cells, and in living organisms.National Science Foundation (U.S.). Physics of Living Systems ProgramNational Institute of Mental Health (U.S.) (Award U01MH106011